Sure, but they can hardly get fights now and most are sticking around. In the end, as long as goons want numbers superiority nothing changes. What's an alliance like FA going to do? They have to hitch their wagon to someone or they will did immediately.
I hope there is a phase three and that it works. I have come to like most of these changes but this alone won't break up the blocs.
By itself no, but after the change the value of being in the CFC will be quite dramatically lower than it is today.
FA, Lawn and anyone renting in Delve will only be able to rely on the part of the CFC that is willing to go to the lengths they need to, in order to circumvent the fatigue. It is circumventable, but honestly the value of Lawn and those renters are going to have to re-evaluated.
That said, the status quo horribly continuing is probably the most likely outcome if phases 2 and 3 don't have some equally revolutionary sov changes.